Got it with Imladris! I know! WTF? I played aggressive, made a lot of units, and held ground easily against Gondor. My pikes are stellar, and they ate Gondor knights. 412 units created, opponent created 1,112. But my units were really beefy compared to the stuff Gondor was sending in general. Significantly so. I was not at all expecting to win, and yet there I was, charging with both north and south armies at the end to deliver the crushing blow. I only needed four catapults. 

Very shocking. Even the game was projecting that I would lose. But I never list ground, I just kept right on gaining, and pushing the line further Medium’s way.  Pretty soon, I had all but two settlements and he was just stuck in his base. It was over. A good win.